Which Countries Deteriorated the Most in the UN Human Development Index?

The UN Human Development Index (HDI) measures a country’s achievement in three key dimensions: health, education, and standards of living. It is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three indices. The Human Development Index 2020 uses data collected in 2019 and ranks 189 countries and regions according to their scores.

Our previous infographic listed countries that improved their Human Development Index scores the most from 2010 to 2019. The infographic above displays the opposite—countries that experienced deterioration during the same period. We will examine what might have caused their deterioration by briefly reflecting what the country went through during this period.

Only Seven Countries Deteriorated

Overall, the world has become more developed in the last decade according to the Human Development Index. The global average of annual HDI growth was 0.59% between 2010 and 2019.

As our previous article covered, some countries achieved significant improvements. Especially, Eswatini improved its score exceptionally well with average HDI growth of 2.03% over the past 10 years. Additionally, the number of countries with scores above 0.8 increased from 50 to 66. This means more countries enjoy a higher level of health, education, and standards of living.

However, the bad news is that seven countries lowered their scores during the decade. Unfortunately, Lebanon, Jordan, Libya, Venezuela, Timor-Leste, Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen have deteriorated.

Five out of the seven countries are in the Middle East and are members of the Arab League. All the countries except for Lebanon appear in the lower half of the rankings. (Lebanon 92nd, Jordan 102nd, Libya 105th, Venezuela 113th, Timor-Leste 141st, Syrian Arab Republic 151st, and Yemen 179th.)

Here is the change in scores for these seven nations:

Now, let’s investigate each country.

Syrian Arab Republic | The Decade-Long War-Torn Country

Syria worsened its Human Development Index score by 0.105 from 0.672 to 0.567 between 2010 and 2019. This was the deepest drop in the world during this period. So what happened to Syria?

Syria has been in war since 2011. In the wave of Arab Spring in the region, people of Syria also stood against the authoritarian Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 15 March 2011. Protesters initially demanded removal of the President and democratic reforms. Then it grew into police and military violence, brutal crackdown, and massive arrests, which killed and injured the crowd. By the end of April, the Syrian unrest mounted. The government deployed troops to pacify the situation, against which people created multiple rebel groups.

The civil uprising developed into a complicated proxy war with active foreign involvement. It can be broadly divided into four sides—and each side has foreign backers. First, Assad and its allies, backed by Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. Second, Gulf States, Turkey, Jordan, and the US provide support to a huge array of rebel groups. Third, there are Kurdish-led forces supported by the US. Forth, there is the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which gained global prominence through this war and ideological support from radicalized religious fanatics.

Not only the peace slipped away from the country, but also a number of sanctions have crippled the Syrian economy for more than a decade. More than 306,000 civilians were killed. Additionally, more than 13 million people have fled the country.

Libya | The Country Just out of War

Libya’s HDI score for 2010 was just below the benchmark of 0.8—0.798. Unfortunately, the score fell by 0.074 to 0.724 in the last decade. The positive is that Libya officially ended its prolonged civil war in 2020. However, the negative is that the country is still largely in humanitarian crisis. It is also one of the most corrupt countries in the African Continent.

Libya took a path like Syria—the difference was that protesters deposed the leader with the help of foreign forces. In February 2011, the Arab Spring also came to Libya. Libyans opposing Muammar Gaddafi started massive anti-government movements. While pro-Gaddafi government deployed armed forces against rebel groups, NATO started backing the rebels. Rebels finally captured and killed Gaddafi in October 2011. They declared the liberation of Libya under an interim government called the National Transitional Council of Libya.

However, assassination of Gaddafi did not bring about peace into the deeply divided country. The country was eventually split between two rival governments: the General National Congress (GNC) backed by the UN and the Libyan National Army (LNA) backed by Egypt, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to these two main governments, there are multiple players including radical Islamist militants. In October 2020, parties involved reached a permanent ceasefire.

Although the war has ended officially, recovery takes time. Libya’s gross national income per capita has sunk since 2010; $32,000 in 2010, 23,020 in 2019, and still at a low of 23,550 as of 2021. An estimated 803,000 people need humanitarian assistance as of 2022.

Venezuela | The Country of Hyperinflation & the Most Oil Reserves

Venezuela used to be the richest country in South America. And it was once one of the twenty richest countries in the world. Even today, the country holds the largest oil reserves (303.8 billion barrels) that account for 17.5% of the world’s oil reserves. Nevertheless, its economy has been almost in freefall since the late 2000s. The country lowered its HDI score from 0.757 to 0.711 in the past decade.

In the early 2000s, oil prices increased partly due to increasing oil demand in China. The increased oil prices benefited Venezuela under Hugo Chávez. He launched social programs to improve public services including free medical clinics and food and housing subsidies. The country’s conditions seemed to have improved temporarily but with a huge legacy—overspending and excessive price controls. Moreover, corruption and inefficiency in the government were rampant.

By the early 2010s, the country’s economy was in sharp fall as oil prices plummeted. In 2013, President Chávez passed away and his ally Nicolás Maduro took the presidency. The change in presidency did not help the country recover but instead worsened the situation.

There are chronic shortages of daily essential items such as milk, rice, oil, flour, toilet paper, and medicines. The country has been in hyperinflation since 2016; its inflation rate hit an all-time high of 65,370% in 2018. (Remember, an inflation rate of 6.1% hit the headline in Australia in July 2022!) Venezuela is in hyperinflation for the longest period of time in the world’s history.

Yemen | The Country with the Worst Humanitarian Crisis

Yemen received one of the lowest HDI scores in 2019—0.470 sitting at the 179th in the rankings, down by 0.036 from 0.506 of 2010. Although the war in Yemen hardly makes the headline for some reason, it is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

The foundation of today’s conflict was laid as early as in the 19th Century when the British Empire established a protectorate in southern Yemen. On the other hand, northern Yemen gained independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1918, declaring a Shia kingdom. In the 1960s, rising tension between the two superpowers (US and USSR) also sparked a civil war in North Yemen. Around the same time, Arab nationalism took place in southern Yemen, hastening British withdrawal, which led to the foundation of a socialist states in the south. Meanwhile in the north, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Britain supported the kingdom. Egypt and Soviet Union supported republicans. In 1967, the kingdom failed to retake the city of Saana, after which both parties agreed a ceasefire. They then established a republican state, North Yemen.

South Yemen and North Yemen finally got together at the end of the Cold War in 1990. The country seemed to have unified under President Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, north-south tensions remained high especially after assassination of a Shia leader in 2004. Following multiple insurgents and uprisings, the country finally went into a civil war in 2014 with foreign involvement. It is a Saudi-Iranian proxy war, but at the same time it consists of overlapping complications that result from the past.

According to the UN, some 24 million people in Yemen need urgent humanitarian assistance. Nearly 6 million Yemenis fled the country. 2.2 million Yemeni children under 5 require treatment for acute malnutrition. By December 2022, 19 million Yemenis will be food insecure.

Lebanon | The Country Still Recovering from 15-Year War

Lebanon brought down the HDI score by 0.022 from 0.766 to 0.744 during the period of 2010 to 2019. The Levant country located at the crossroad of Europe, Asia, and Africa has religious, ethnical, and cultural diversity. But unfortunately, the country fought a brutal civil war from 1975 to 1990. The war resulted in 120,000 to 200,000 fatalities, leaving a dark shadow over the country.

Lebanon has been in a serious liquidity crisis since 2019, although the country had witnessed slowdown in liquidity earlier. The 2020 Beirut explosion proved the country is still on a rocky road to recovery. Mismanagement and corruption in the government caused not only financial crisis but also the tragic event like this.

The country’s elite are allegedly abusing the system, burdening the poor and the middle class. The World Bank described Lebanon’s financial crisis “deliberate depression.”

Timor-Leste | The Newly Established Country Carrying Violent Legacies

Timor-Leste or East Timor also lowered its Human Development Index score by 0.022, from 0.628 to 0.606 in the past decade. The country has developed unique culture through the course of history—a mixture of Austronesian, Portuguese, Roman Catholic, Malay, and Indonesian cultures.

Timor-Leste is a relatively new country that gained independence in 2002 from Indonesia. Before the Indonesian grip between 1975 and 2002, Portugal had occupied the land from 1769 to 1975. As the Portuguese era was long enough, the country adopts the similar political system to that of Portugal.

The independence was a result of 300 years of violence and struggles between three groups—pro-autonomy, pro-Portugal, and pro-Indonesia. Even after the independence, the years of unrest continued. The violence escalated in 2006 when discriminatory practices within the military of East Timor structure triggered a conflict. In 2008, rebels attempted to assassinate the President.

Having said that, the security situation in Timor-Leste has improved although with underlying tension. The main cause for the fall in Timor-Leste would be its oil dependent economy. When oil prices surged in the 2000s, so did its GNI per capita. But in the late 2010s, oil prices plunged, so did its GNI per capita. (9,697 in 2017 PPP$ in 2010, 4,440 in 2017 PPP$.)

Jordan | One of the Safest Countries in the Middle East

The fall in Jordan’s Human Development Index score was slight—it fell by 0.08 from 0.737 to 0.729. The country is one of the safest countries in the Middle East, flourishing mainly by tourism. According to its official statistics, the tourism industry contributed 19.4% of Jordan’s GDP in 2018.

The Hashemite Kingdom is not only safe but also provides longer education to its people than others in the region. Mean years of schooling in Jordan was 10.5 years, compared to 7.3 years in Arab States.

Again, the main cause for the drop in its HDI score would be GNI per capita. The country lost much of its tourists and hence income between 2011 and 2016 due to unrest in the region. Between 2017 and 2019 saw a recovery, but the income did not reach the level of pre-Arab Spring. Jordan’s GNI per capita hit a high of 11,039 (2017 PPP$) in 2010, while it was 9,858 (2017 PPP$) in 2019.

Conclusion

The vast majority of the 189 countries in the rankings improved their Human Development Index from 2010 to 2019. Globally, the average of annual Human Development Index growth rate was 0.59% for the period.

However, seven countries experienced deterioration—most of them were in the Middle East. These countries are Syria, Libya, Venezuela, Yemen, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, and Jordan.

One obvious cause for the deterioration in some of these countries is war. Syria and Yemen are in war. Libya and Lebanon are still recovering from prolonged conflicts. Timor-Leste was in independence struggles just some 20 years ago. War and conflicts not only destroyed peace and security in these countries, but also crippled their economy, contributing to corruption and inefficiencies in governance. It also affects surrounding nation’s economy, just as the example of Jordan showed.

Another possible factor is the oil-dependent economy structure. Both Venezuela and Timor-Leste draw a large portion of their spending from petroleum revenues. This structure made these countries thrive when oil prices were higher in 2000s. On the other hand, their economy shrunk as oil prices plunged in the late 2010s.

Unfortunately, the latest Human Development Index 2021/22 released in September 2022 warned that the world’s human development index has fallen backwards for the two consecutive years. The two-consecutive-year setback was recorded for the first time in its 32-year history.